The 6500 Dow?Over three months ago I wrote an entry discussing the possibility of a 6500 Dow called “How Low Will The Dow Go”. https://www.bizzylife.com/2008/11/how-low-will-the-dow-go/
At the time a drop of that magnitude seemed almost incomprehensible, but after today’s performance the idea that we could actually be hitting the bottom seems a welcome relief. If you didn’t read it then, Dr. Dennis O’Donnell’s thoughts are quite interesting. And unlike a few months ago, I hope he is correct.
Tim, I am now having an Irish single malt -Tyrconnell- which is part of the ceremony when you and I catch a fish in Montana or wherever. I switched from the Welsh to note the dreary reality – something the Irish know too well and see again–of getting close to correct on the Dow 6500–AIG- a clearinghouse for systemic risk- and the GDP fall are the engines here but the real concern for less than 6500 is international resistance to buying our debt and any big bank failures–let’s hope for a return to real values and a revision of expectations where the margin of opinion switches to real valuation having reached a floor—note real disposable income up 1.5% —1996 is a good bench mark. regards, Dennis